Mortgage Pulse Report 2024

The CPF Mortgage Pulse Report 2024 results provide insight into public perceptions regarding interest rates, mortgage repayments, house prices, and the housing crisis debate in the UK in 2024.  

Published: 28/03/2024

Methodology: The research was conducted through over 500 form fills on the Clifton Private Finance website between November and March, which attracts thousands of monthly visitors seeking information on property and property finance. This method ensured a diverse and relevant audience for the study. Survey questions included topics surrounding mortgage rates, mortgage repayments, house price trends, the housing crisis debate, and each participant's annual income for comparative data.

The Key Findings 

Over 85% of those surveyed don’t think interest rates will rise in 2024

1 in 3 are worried about keeping up with their mortgage payments

3 in 4 don’t think house prices will increase in 2024

Over 60% of participants think the UK is facing a housing crisis 

Over 85% of those surveyed don’t think interest rates will rise in 2024

Just 15% of participants believe interest rates will rise over the next 12 months, while 85% expect either a decrease or for rates to stay the same.

This sheds some light on the fixed or tracker mortgage debate for first-time buyers and those remortgaging in the next coming months.

George Abouzolof

Senior Finance Broker CeMAP

BoE have held their nerve and kept base at 5.25% for the 5^th time in a row, even though CPI is at 3.4%. Their inflation target is +/- 1% of which we are on the verge of achieving.

Swap rates are on a downward trend too, so we’d expect to see this feed through into lower fixed rate deals soon.

Hopefully, the BoE have learnt from their ultra-low base rate days (circa 0.1%). What they don’t want to do is starve inflation to the point where base rate reductions make little to no difference (known as the zero lower bound of effectiveness). 

The next BoE meeting is on the 9^th of May, if I were a betting man, I’d suggest we may see the 1^st base rate reduction then, assuming CPI has fallen within the target range of which we will know on the 17^th of April.

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1 in 3 are worried about keeping up with their mortgage payments

Concern about meeting mortgage repayments in the next year is higher than expected, with 27% of people worried about keeping up.

It underscores the significance of the multiple consecutive interest rate hikes by the Bank of England over the last few years, and how it affects everyday borrowers.

George Abouzolof

Senior Finance Broker CeMAP

People are definitely worried – we see a clear concern about repayments among our clients every day.

As brokers, we look at every possible avenue to alleviate these struggles, whether it’s increasing the mortgage term, switching some or all of your mortgage to interest only, exploring offset mortgage options, and of course comparing lenders to get the most competitive deal.  

3 in 4 don’t think house prices will increase in 2024 

It’s a pessimistic outlook for property prices in the UK, with 67% of participants expecting the housing market to fall or stagnate in 2024.

George Abouzolof

Senior Finance Broker CeMAP

I always suggest looking at Nationwide's quarterly house price index for housing market insights.

The rate at which prices are falling is potentially reducing - remember, as rates drop, demand increases. 

In terms of a housing crisis, there's an argument to be made that in a housing crisis, we should see house prices decreasing significantly - although we've seen drops recently, the rate of decrease is reducing, suggesting we're coming out of it.

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Over 60% of participants think the UK is facing a housing crisis

It's a subjective and devising topic, but the numbers speak for themselves.

And this jumps to a whopping 71% of those who are earning less than £50k per year.

For more information, please contact: sam.hodgson@cliftonpf.co.uk